It’s like trying to predict where lightning will strike.
So even though we know that turnovers are football gambling’s silver bullet, there really is no way to make that information pay out for us on a weekly basis. Interceptions are random and a perpetual variable from week to week. Fumble recovery rates don’t follow any discernable pattern.
Unfortunately, turnovers are also the most fickle and fluky aspect of the sport. That means teams simply winning the turnover battle also win the game 78.6 percent of the time and cover the spread an astonishing 77.1 percent of the time! Going back over the last 15 years, teams that have concluded a game with a positive turnover margin have gone 2,394-649-3 SU and 2,322-690-34 ATS. Over the course of the last six years, teams that have won the turnover battle have won their games straight-up 77 percent of the time and covered the spread 76 percent of the time.
#NFL TURNOVER LEADERS PROFESSIONAL#
Turnovers are one of the most consequential statistics in professional football and NFL betting. Nowhere is all of this clearer than when talking about turnovers.ĭoc’s Sports offers NFL picks against the spread for every game on our NFL predictions page. But that odd, oblong ball, and all the erratic, unforeseeable bounces that it takes, are the heart of football’s mystique. Yes, it is now and forever will be a form of orchestrated combat bathed in blood and brutality. Football is a wildly unpredictable and maddeningly inconsistent game. Yet it holds a lot of truth about our own powerlessness against forces of nature and causes beyond our control. And when I was particularly frustrated by a bad beat or a brutal loss, his response was always the same: “That’s why they play with a funny-shaped ball.” He’d try to boost my confidence after bad ones. When I first started out as a football handicapper, I had a client that would e-mail me every few weeks to chat about this or that. “That’s why they play with a funny-shaped ball.” This article originally appeared in the 2021 Doc’s Sports Journal.
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